Combat Edge Intelligence

Adrian Diaz vs Connor Matthews

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-7-1Record7-4-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'8"
TBDReach71"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Team Alpha Male· 1645 avg Elo · 21 ratedTeamLakeville MMA & Fitness

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Adrian DiazNow 1561
If they win+16→ 1577
If they lose-16→ 1545
Connor MatthewsNow 1561
If they win+16→ 1577
If they lose-16→ 1545

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1535 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1543 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

0.48
Sig. strikes / min
5.08
43%
Strike accuracy
43%
3.84
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
6.25
51%
Strike defense
56%
2.40
Takedown avg.
3.46
50%
Takedown accuracy
56%
0%
Takedown defense
50%
0
Submission avg.
0.69

Trajectory

Adrian DiazConnor Matthews
15501600201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

4 (36%)
KO/TKO
1 (14%)
5 (45%)
Submission
5 (71%)
2 (18%)
Decision
1 (14%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Adrian Diaz and Connor Matthews within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1561 vs 1561), separated by just 0 points.

Adrian Diaz enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Connor Matthews enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Adrian Diaz finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Connor Matthews 86%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.