Adrian Diaz vs Connor Matthews
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-7-1Record7-4-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'8"
TBDReach71"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Team Alpha MaleTeamLakeville MMA & Fitness
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1577
If they lose-16→ 1545
If they win+16→ 1578
If they lose-16→ 1546
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1535 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1545 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Adrian DiazConnor Matthews
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Connor Matthews52%
Adrian Diaz 48%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Connor Matthews a 52% favorite over Adrian Diaz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1561 vs 1562), separated by just 1 points.
Adrian Diaz enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Connor Matthews enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Adrian Diaz finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Connor Matthews 86%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.