Adrian Diaz vs Pedro Pena
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-7-1Record10-4-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'10"
TBDReach-
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Team Alpha Male· 1645 avg Elo · 20 ratedTeamUnderdogs MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1578
If they lose-16→ 1546
If they win+16→ 1576
If they lose-16→ 1544
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1538 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1492 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Adrian DiazPedro Pena
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Adrian Diaz51%
Pedro Pena 49%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Adrian Diaz a 51% favorite over Pedro Pena in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1562 vs 1560), separated by just 2 points.
Adrian Diaz enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Adrian Diaz finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Pedro Pena 78%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.