Combat Edge Intelligence

Adrian Yanez vs Rinya Nakamura

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-6-1Record10-1-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'7"
70"Reach68"
135 lbsWeight136 lbs
Metro Fight Club· 1615 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamFreelance· 1605 avg Elo · 3 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Adrian YanezNow 1710
If they win+12→ 1722
If they lose-12→ 1698
Rinya NakamuraNow 1711
If they win+16→ 1727
If they lose-16→ 1695

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1674 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1597 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.96
Sig. strikes / min
3.53
42%
Strike accuracy
55%
5.24
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.38
57%
Strike defense
67%
0
Takedown avg.
3.72
0%
Takedown accuracy
90%
75%
Takedown defense
100%
0
Submission avg.
1.65

Trajectory

Adrian YanezRinya Nakamura
165017002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

12 (67%)
KO/TKO
6 (60%)
2 (11%)
Submission
1 (10%)
4 (22%)
Decision
3 (30%)

Combat Edge model read

Adrian Yanez51%
Rinya Nakamura 49%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Adrian Yanez a 51% favorite over Rinya Nakamura in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Rinya Nakamura's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1710 vs 1711), separated by just 1 points.

Adrian Yanez finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Rinya Nakamura 70%.

Adrian Yanez carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.