Adrian Yanez vs Tony Kelley
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-6-1Record8-3-0
BantamweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'10"
70"Reach70"
135 lbsWeight138 lbs
Metro Fight ClubTeamTeam Alpha Male
What's at stake
Adrian Yanez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Tony Kelley carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1716
If they lose-16→ 1692
If they win+32→ 1626
If they lose-16→ 1578
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1673 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1568 · 9 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Adrian YanezTony Kelley
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Adrian Yanez91%
Tony Kelley 9%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Adrian Yanez a 91% favorite over Tony Kelley in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Adrian Yanez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1708 to 1594, a 114-point edge.
Adrian Yanez finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Tony Kelley 75%.
Adrian Yanez and Tony Kelley share 1 common opponent: Randy Costa.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.