Adriano Martins vs Donald Cerrone
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-12-0Record36-17-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'0"
72,0"Reach73"
154 lbsWeight170 lbs
Top Life AmazonasTeamBMF Ranch
What's at stake
Donald Cerrone is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Adriano Martins carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1681
If they lose-11→ 1657
If they win+11→ 1720
If they lose-13→ 1696
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1620 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1744 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Adriano MartinsDonald Cerrone
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Donald Cerrone77%
Adriano Martins 23%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Donald Cerrone a 77% favorite over Adriano Martins in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Donald Cerrone holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1709 to 1668, a 41-point edge.
Donald Cerrone enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Adriano Martins finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Donald Cerrone 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.