Combat Edge Intelligence

Adriano Martins vs Donald Cerrone

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

29-12-0Record36-17-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'0"
72,0"Reach73"
154 lbsWeight170 lbs
Top Life AmazonasTeamBMF Ranch

What's at stake

Donald Cerrone is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Adriano Martins carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Adriano MartinsNow 1670
If they win+13→ 1683
If they lose-11→ 1659
Donald CerroneNow 1710
If they win+11→ 1721
If they lose-13→ 1697

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1620 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1744 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.80
Sig. strikes / min
4.41
39%
Strike accuracy
47%
2.14
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.48
65%
Strike defense
53%
0.83
Takedown avg.
1.16
80%
Takedown accuracy
33%
82%
Takedown defense
74%
0.41
Submission avg.
1.16

Trajectory

Adriano MartinsDonald Cerrone
16501700175020202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

13 (45%)
KO/TKO
10 (28%)
3 (10%)
Submission
17 (47%)
13 (45%)
Decision
9 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Donald Cerrone61%
Adriano Martins 39%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Donald Cerrone a 61% favorite over Adriano Martins in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Donald Cerrone holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1710 to 1670, a 40-point edge.

Donald Cerrone enters on a 6-fight loss streak.

Adriano Martins finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Donald Cerrone 75%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.