Combat Edge Intelligence

Adriano Martins vs Islam Makhachev

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

29-12-0Record28-1-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'10"
72,0"Reach70"
154 lbsWeight155 lbs
Top Life AmazonasTeamEagles MMA

What's at stake

Islam Makhachev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +5 while a loss costs more — Adriano Martins carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Adriano MartinsNow 1670
If they win+19→ 1689
If they lose-5→ 1665
Islam MakhachevNow 1922
If they win+5→ 1927
If they lose-19→ 1903

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1620 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1785 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.80
Sig. strikes / min
2.45
39%
Strike accuracy
58%
2.14
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.45
65%
Strike defense
62%
0.83
Takedown avg.
3.10
80%
Takedown accuracy
56%
82%
Takedown defense
91%
0.41
Submission avg.
0.98

Trajectory

Adriano MartinsIslam Makhachev
1700180019002022202320242025

Win method breakdown

13 (45%)
KO/TKO
5 (18%)
3 (10%)
Submission
13 (46%)
13 (45%)
Decision
10 (36%)

Combat Edge model read

Islam Makhachev92%
Adriano Martins 8%Elo baseline: 81%

The Combat Edge model makes Islam Makhachev a 92% favorite over Adriano Martins in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (81%).

Islam Makhachev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1922 to 1670, a 252-point edge.

Islam Makhachev enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Adriano Martins finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Islam Makhachev 64%.

Adriano Martins carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.