Adriano Moraes vs Mateus Soares
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Adriano Moraes58%
Mateus Soares 42%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Adriano Moraes a 58% favorite over Mateus Soares in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1687 vs 1687), separated by just 0 points.
Mateus Soares enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Adriano Moraes finishes 74% of wins inside the distance, Mateus Soares 92%.
Adriano Moraes carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
23-6-0Record12-2-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'8"Height5'5"
70"Reach66"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1703
If they lose-16→ 1671
If they win+16→ 1703
If they lose-16→ 1671
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1644 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1546 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Adriano MoraesMateus Soares