Ahmed Darwish vs Ilya Kotau
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-2-0Record0-0-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height6'2"
70"Reach69"
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
TeamTeixeira MMA & Fitness· 1664 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
Ahmed Darwish is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Ilya Kotau carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+23→ 1519
If they lose-25→ 1471
If they win+25→ 1503
If they lose-23→ 1455
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1526 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1502 · 3 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ahmed DarwishIlya Kotau
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ahmed Darwish62%
Ilya Kotau 38%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Ahmed Darwish a 62% favorite over Ilya Kotau in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Ahmed Darwish holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1496 to 1478, a 18-point edge.
Ahmed Darwish enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Ilya Kotau enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Ahmed Darwish finishes 67% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.