Ahmed Darwish vs Josh Rafferty
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-2-0Record9-8-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height6'0"
70"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight169 lbs
TeamMeat Truck Inc.
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1520
If they lose-24→ 1472
If they win+16→ 1512
If they lose-16→ 1480
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1526 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1495 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ahmed DarwishJosh Rafferty
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ahmed Darwish62%
Josh Rafferty 38%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Ahmed Darwish a 62% favorite over Josh Rafferty in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1496 vs 1496), separated by just 0 points.
Ahmed Darwish enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Josh Rafferty enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Ahmed Darwish finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Josh Rafferty 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.