Ahmed Darwish vs Mario Rivera
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-2-0Record6-7-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'10"
70"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
TBDTeamCalifornia Warriors
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1521
If they lose-24→ 1473
If they win+16→ 1508
If they lose-16→ 1476
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1528 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1509 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ahmed DarwishMario Rivera
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ahmed Darwish70%
Mario Rivera 30%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Ahmed Darwish a 70% favorite over Mario Rivera in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1497 vs 1492), separated by just 5 points.
Ahmed Darwish enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Mario Rivera enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Ahmed Darwish finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Mario Rivera 50%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.