Ahmed Darwish vs Stevie Lynch
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-2-0Record5-2-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'10"
70"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Team
What's at stake
Ahmed Darwish is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Stevie Lynch carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+23→ 1519
If they lose-25→ 1471
If they win+25→ 1500
If they lose-23→ 1452
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1526 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1559 · 1 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ahmed DarwishStevie Lynch
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ahmed Darwish62%
Stevie Lynch 38%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Ahmed Darwish a 62% favorite over Stevie Lynch in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Ahmed Darwish holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1496 to 1475, a 21-point edge.
Ahmed Darwish enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Ahmed Darwish finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Stevie Lynch 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.