Ahmed El Sisy vs Jonatas Novaes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-3-0Record13-5-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'10"
69"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Atom Jiu-JitsuTeamNovaes BJJ Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1626
If they lose-16→ 1594
If they win+16→ 1625
If they lose-16→ 1593
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1519 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1506 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Ahmed El SisyJonatas Novaes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ahmed El Sisy58%
Jonatas Novaes 42%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Ahmed El Sisy a 58% favorite over Jonatas Novaes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1610 vs 1609), separated by just 1 points.
Jonatas Novaes enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Ahmed El Sisy finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Jonatas Novaes 69%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.