Combat Edge Intelligence

AJ Dobson vs Tafon Nchukwi

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

7-3-0Record7-4-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'0"
76"Reach77"
185 lbsWeight190 lbs
Strong Style Fight TeamTeamTeam Lloyd Irvin

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

AJ DobsonNow 1598
If they win+16→ 1614
If they lose-16→ 1582
Tafon NchukwiNow 1588
If they win+16→ 1604
If they lose-16→ 1572

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1566 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1619 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.29
Sig. strikes / min
5.57
46%
Strike accuracy
53%
5.31
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.11
46%
Strike defense
54%
1.67
Takedown avg.
0.76
75%
Takedown accuracy
57%
65%
Takedown defense
65%
0.28
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

AJ DobsonTafon Nchukwi
155016001650202220232024

Win method breakdown

3 (43%)
KO/TKO
4 (57%)
2 (29%)
Submission
0 (0%)
2 (29%)
Decision
3 (43%)

Combat Edge model read

AJ Dobson56%
Tafon Nchukwi 44%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes AJ Dobson a 56% favorite over Tafon Nchukwi in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1598 vs 1588), separated by just 10 points.

AJ Dobson finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Tafon Nchukwi 57%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.