AJ Fletcher vs Matthew Semelsberger
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-5-0Record11-8-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'1"
67"Reach75"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1605
If they lose-16→ 1573
If they win+16→ 1612
If they lose-16→ 1580
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1545 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1648 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
AJ FletcherMatthew Semelsberger
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matthew Semelsberger62%
AJ Fletcher 38%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Matthew Semelsberger a 62% favorite over AJ Fletcher in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1589 vs 1596), separated by just 7 points.
AJ Fletcher enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Matthew Semelsberger enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
AJ Fletcher finishes 90% of wins inside the distance, Matthew Semelsberger 64%.
Matthew Semelsberger carries a 8-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.