AJ Fletcher vs Matthew Semelsberger
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-5-0Record11-8-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'1"
67"Reach75"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Gladiators AcademyTeamClinch Academy
What's at stake
Matthew Semelsberger is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — AJ Fletcher carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1607
If they lose-15→ 1575
If they win+15→ 1623
If they lose-17→ 1591
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1547 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1647 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
AJ FletcherMatthew Semelsberger
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting AJ Fletcher and Matthew Semelsberger within a point of even.
Matthew Semelsberger holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1608 to 1590, a 18-point edge.
AJ Fletcher enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Matthew Semelsberger enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
AJ Fletcher finishes 90% of wins inside the distance, Matthew Semelsberger 64%.
Matthew Semelsberger carries a 8-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.