AJ Fletcher vs Ryan Larson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-5-0Record6-2-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"HeightTBD
67"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Gladiators AcademyTeamTBD
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1606
If they lose-16→ 1574
If they win+24→ 1613
If they lose-24→ 1565
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1547 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1521 · 8 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
AJ FletcherRyan Larson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ryan Larson60%
AJ Fletcher 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Ryan Larson a 60% favorite over AJ Fletcher in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans AJ Fletcher's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1590 vs 1589), separated by just 1 points.
AJ Fletcher enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
AJ Fletcher finishes 90% of wins inside the distance, Ryan Larson 83%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.