AJ Fletcher vs Themba Gorimbo
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
10-5-0Record14-7-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'1"
67"Reach77"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Gladiators AcademyTeamMMA Masters
What's at stake
Themba Gorimbo is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — AJ Fletcher carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1607
If they lose-15→ 1575
If they win+15→ 1624
If they lose-17→ 1592
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1547 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1631 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
AJ FletcherThemba Gorimbo
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Themba Gorimbo60%
AJ Fletcher 40%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Themba Gorimbo a 60% favorite over AJ Fletcher in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Themba Gorimbo holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1609 to 1590, a 19-point edge.
AJ Fletcher enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Themba Gorimbo enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
AJ Fletcher finishes 90% of wins inside the distance, Themba Gorimbo 57%.
Themba Gorimbo carries a 10-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.