AJ Fletcher vs TJ Waldburger
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-5-0Record16-9-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'11"
67"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Gladiators AcademyTeamGrapplers Lair Fight Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1606
If they lose-16→ 1574
If they win+16→ 1608
If they lose-16→ 1576
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1547 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1648 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
AJ FletcherTJ Waldburger
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
TJ Waldburger55%
AJ Fletcher 45%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes TJ Waldburger a 55% favorite over AJ Fletcher in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1590 vs 1592), separated by just 2 points.
AJ Fletcher enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
TJ Waldburger enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
AJ Fletcher finishes 90% of wins inside the distance, TJ Waldburger 88%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.