AJ McKee Jr. vs Movlid Khaybulaev
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
25-2-0Record24-0-1
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'6"
73"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Team BodyshopTeamFight Nights Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1850
If they lose-12→ 1826
If they win+12→ 1852
If they lose-12→ 1828
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1697 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1643 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
AJ McKee Jr.Movlid Khaybulaev
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
AJ McKee Jr.60%
Movlid Khaybulaev 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes AJ McKee Jr. a 60% favorite over Movlid Khaybulaev in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Movlid Khaybulaev's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1838 vs 1840), separated by just 2 points.
AJ McKee Jr. enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Movlid Khaybulaev enters on a 10-fight win streak.
AJ McKee Jr. finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Movlid Khaybulaev 42%.
AJ McKee Jr. carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.