Combat Edge Intelligence

Akbarh Arreola vs Francisco Trinaldo

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

26-11-1Record29-9-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'8"
71,0"Reach70"
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Entram GymTeamBrazilian TKO

What's at stake

Francisco Trinaldo is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Akbarh Arreola carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Akbarh ArreolaNow 1637
If they win+16→ 1653
If they lose-8→ 1629
Francisco TrinaldoNow 1766
If they win+8→ 1774
If they lose-16→ 1750

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1588 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1693 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.32
Sig. strikes / min
3.13
45%
Strike accuracy
45%
4.01
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.67
57%
Strike defense
61%
1.07
Takedown avg.
0.98
100%
Takedown accuracy
42%
33%
Takedown defense
60%
0.36
Submission avg.
0.51

Trajectory

Akbarh ArreolaFrancisco Trinaldo
1650170017501800202020212022

Win method breakdown

5 (19%)
KO/TKO
10 (34%)
20 (77%)
Submission
5 (17%)
1 (4%)
Decision
14 (48%)

Combat Edge model read

Francisco Trinaldo69%
Akbarh Arreola 31%Elo baseline: 68%

The Combat Edge model makes Francisco Trinaldo a 69% favorite over Akbarh Arreola in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (68%).

Francisco Trinaldo holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1766 to 1637, a 129-point edge.

Akbarh Arreola enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Akbarh Arreola finishes 96% of wins inside the distance, Francisco Trinaldo 52%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.