Akbarh Arreola vs Francisco Trinaldo
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
26-11-1Record29-9-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'8"
71,0"Reach70"
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Entram Gym· 1678 avg Elo · 12 ratedTeamBrazilian TKO· 1643 avg Elo · 6 rated
What's at stake
Francisco Trinaldo is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Akbarh Arreola carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+16→ 1653
If they lose-8→ 1629
If they win+8→ 1773
If they lose-16→ 1749
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1586 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1694 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Akbarh ArreolaFrancisco Trinaldo
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Francisco Trinaldo60%
Akbarh Arreola 40%Elo baseline: 68%
The Combat Edge model makes Francisco Trinaldo a 60% favorite over Akbarh Arreola in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (68%).
Francisco Trinaldo holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1765 to 1637, a 128-point edge.
Akbarh Arreola enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Akbarh Arreola finishes 96% of wins inside the distance, Francisco Trinaldo 52%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.