Akbarh Arreola vs Jake Matthews
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
26-11-1Record23-8-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'11"
71,0"Reach73"
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Entram GymTeamNexus
What's at stake
Jake Matthews is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Akbarh Arreola carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+16→ 1653
If they lose-8→ 1629
If they win+8→ 1761
If they lose-16→ 1737
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1588 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1698 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Akbarh ArreolaJake Matthews
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jake Matthews88%
Akbarh Arreola 12%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Jake Matthews a 88% favorite over Akbarh Arreola in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Jake Matthews holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1753 to 1637, a 116-point edge.
Akbarh Arreola enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Akbarh Arreola finishes 96% of wins inside the distance, Jake Matthews 61%.
Jake Matthews carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.