Combat Edge Intelligence

Akhmed Gakiev vs Matthew Semelsberger

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-4-0Record11-8-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height6'1"
-Reach75"
157 lbsWeight170 lbs
Fight Club Akhmat· 1683 avg Elo · 20 ratedTeamClinch Academy

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Akhmed GakievNow 1610
If they win+16→ 1626
If they lose-16→ 1594
Matthew SemelsbergerNow 1609
If they win+16→ 1625
If they lose-16→ 1593

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1519 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1649 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
3.77
TBD
Strike accuracy
43%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.24
TBD
Strike defense
54%
TBD
Takedown avg.
1.01
TBD
Takedown accuracy
57%
TBD
Takedown defense
46%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.38

Trajectory

Akhmed GakievMatthew Semelsberger
1600165017002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (17%)
KO/TKO
6 (55%)
0 (0%)
Submission
1 (9%)
10 (83%)
Decision
4 (36%)

Combat Edge model read

Akhmed Gakiev66%
Matthew Semelsberger 34%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Akhmed Gakiev a 66% favorite over Matthew Semelsberger in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1610 vs 1609), separated by just 1 points.

Akhmed Gakiev enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Matthew Semelsberger enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Akhmed Gakiev finishes 17% of wins inside the distance, Matthew Semelsberger 64%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.