Akhmed Magomedov vs Clay Guida
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-5-0Record38-25-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'7"
-Reach70"
156 lbsWeight155 lbs
Fight Club Akhmat· 1683 avg Elo · 20 ratedTeamTeam Alpha Male· 1645 avg Elo · 21 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1617
If they lose-16→ 1585
If they win+12→ 1611
If they lose-12→ 1587
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1546 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1672 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Akhmed MagomedovClay Guida
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Akhmed Magomedov67%
Clay Guida 33%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Akhmed Magomedov a 67% favorite over Clay Guida in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1601 vs 1599), separated by just 2 points.
Akhmed Magomedov enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Akhmed Magomedov finishes 40% of wins inside the distance, Clay Guida 57%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.