Combat Edge Intelligence

Akhmed Magomedov vs Derrick Burnsed

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-5-0Record10-3-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'11"
-ReachTBD
156 lbsWeight154 lbs
Fight Club AkhmatTeamTeam Alpha Male

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Akhmed MagomedovNow 1600
If they win+16→ 1616
If they lose-16→ 1584
Derrick BurnsedNow 1601
If they win+16→ 1617
If they lose-16→ 1585

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1545 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1514 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
3.88
TBD
Strike accuracy
38%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.11
TBD
Strike defense
51%
TBD
Takedown avg.
2.15
TBD
Takedown accuracy
44%
TBD
Takedown defense
70%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.25

Trajectory

Akhmed MagomedovDerrick Burnsed
160016502011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (10%)
KO/TKO
3 (30%)
3 (30%)
Submission
7 (70%)
6 (60%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Akhmed Magomedov60%
Derrick Burnsed 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Akhmed Magomedov a 60% favorite over Derrick Burnsed in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Derrick Burnsed's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1600 vs 1601), separated by just 1 points.

Akhmed Magomedov enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Akhmed Magomedov finishes 40% of wins inside the distance, Derrick Burnsed 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.