Combat Edge Intelligence

Akhmed Magomedov vs Gleristone Santos

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-5-0Record35-12-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'9"
-Reach70,0"
156 lbsWeight155 lbs
Fight Club Akhmat· 1683 avg Elo · 20 ratedTeamPitbull Brothers· 1624 avg Elo · 6 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Akhmed MagomedovNow 1601
If they win+16→ 1617
If they lose-16→ 1585
Gleristone SantosNow 1599
If they win+12→ 1611
If they lose-12→ 1587

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1546 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1526 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
4.69
TBD
Strike accuracy
60%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.77
TBD
Strike defense
48%
TBD
Takedown avg.
3.44
TBD
Takedown accuracy
53%
TBD
Takedown defense
86%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.77

Trajectory

Akhmed MagomedovGleristone Santos
160016502020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (10%)
KO/TKO
14 (40%)
3 (30%)
Submission
6 (17%)
6 (60%)
Decision
15 (43%)

Combat Edge model read

Akhmed Magomedov62%
Gleristone Santos 38%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Akhmed Magomedov a 62% favorite over Gleristone Santos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1601 vs 1599), separated by just 2 points.

Akhmed Magomedov enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Gleristone Santos enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Akhmed Magomedov finishes 40% of wins inside the distance, Gleristone Santos 57%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.