Akhmed Magomedov vs Jamie Varner
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-5-0Record21-11-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'8"
-ReachTBD
156 lbsWeight155 lbs
Fight Club AkhmatTeamArizona Combat Sports
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1616
If they lose-16→ 1584
If they win+12→ 1615
If they lose-12→ 1591
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1545 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1616 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Akhmed MagomedovJamie Varner
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Akhmed Magomedov66%
Jamie Varner 34%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Akhmed Magomedov a 66% favorite over Jamie Varner in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jamie Varner's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1600 vs 1603), separated by just 3 points.
Akhmed Magomedov enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Jamie Varner enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Akhmed Magomedov finishes 40% of wins inside the distance, Jamie Varner 86%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.