Akhmed Magomedov vs Mehdi Baghdad
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-5-0Record12-7-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height6'1"
-Reach40,0"
156 lbsWeight170 lbs
Fight Club Akhmat· 1680 avg Elo · 29 ratedTeamBlack House
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1602
If they lose-16→ 1570
If they win+16→ 1602
If they lose-16→ 1570
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1548 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1560 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Akhmed MagomedovMehdi Baghdad
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Akhmed Magomedov59%
Mehdi Baghdad 41%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Akhmed Magomedov a 59% favorite over Mehdi Baghdad in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1586 vs 1586), separated by just 0 points.
Akhmed Magomedov enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Akhmed Magomedov finishes 40% of wins inside the distance, Mehdi Baghdad 92%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.