Combat Edge Intelligence

Akhmed Magomedov vs Rafaello Oliveira

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-5-0Record17-8-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'8"
-ReachTBD
156 lbsWeight155 lbs
Fight Club AkhmatTeamAMA Fight Club

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Akhmed MagomedovNow 1600
If they win+16→ 1616
If they lose-16→ 1584
Rafaello OliveiraNow 1601
If they win+16→ 1617
If they lose-16→ 1585

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1545 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1583 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
2.19
TBD
Strike accuracy
33%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.38
TBD
Strike defense
59%
TBD
Takedown avg.
2.49
TBD
Takedown accuracy
37%
TBD
Takedown defense
11%
TBD
Submission avg.
1.60

Trajectory

Akhmed MagomedovRafaello Oliveira
16001650201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (10%)
KO/TKO
4 (27%)
3 (30%)
Submission
5 (33%)
6 (60%)
Decision
6 (40%)

Combat Edge model read

Akhmed Magomedov60%
Rafaello Oliveira 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Akhmed Magomedov a 60% favorite over Rafaello Oliveira in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Rafaello Oliveira's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1600 vs 1601), separated by just 1 points.

Akhmed Magomedov enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Rafaello Oliveira enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Akhmed Magomedov finishes 40% of wins inside the distance, Rafaello Oliveira 60%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.