Combat Edge Intelligence

Akihiro Gono vs Dan Hardy

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Dan Hardy

Dan Hardy

“The Outlaw”

25-10-0WelterweightUFC

1684Good

Tale of the tape

37-24-8Record25-10-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height6'0"
TBDReach74"
161 lbsWeight170 lbs
GrabakaTeamTeam Rough House

What's at stake

Dan Hardy is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Akihiro Gono carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Akihiro GonoNow 1584
If they win+15→ 1599
If they lose-9→ 1575
Dan HardyNow 1684
If they win+9→ 1693
If they lose-15→ 1669

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1504 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1661 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.35
Sig. strikes / min
2.46
53%
Strike accuracy
35%
11.35
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.44
64%
Strike defense
51%
1.57
Takedown avg.
0.73
80%
Takedown accuracy
35%
46%
Takedown defense
35%
0.39
Submission avg.
0.36

Trajectory

Akihiro GonoDan Hardy
16001650170020102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023

Win method breakdown

7 (19%)
KO/TKO
14 (56%)
9 (25%)
Submission
2 (8%)
20 (56%)
Decision
9 (36%)

Combat Edge model read

Dan Hardy83%
Akihiro Gono 17%Elo baseline: 64%

The Combat Edge model makes Dan Hardy a 83% favorite over Akihiro Gono in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).

Dan Hardy holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1684 to 1584, a 100-point edge.

Dan Hardy enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Akihiro Gono finishes 44% of wins inside the distance, Dan Hardy 64%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.