Combat Edge Intelligence

Akihiro Gono vs Jon Fitch

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

37-24-8Record32-8-2
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height6'0"
TBDReachTBD
161 lbsWeight170 lbs
GrabakaTeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy· 1641 avg Elo · 5 rated

What's at stake

Jon Fitch is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Akihiro Gono carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Akihiro GonoNow 1585
If they win+17→ 1602
If they lose-7→ 1578
Jon FitchNow 1741
If they win+7→ 1748
If they lose-17→ 1724

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1507 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1672 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.35
Sig. strikes / min
2.64
53%
Strike accuracy
51%
11.35
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.75
64%
Strike defense
54%
1.57
Takedown avg.
3.64
80%
Takedown accuracy
55%
46%
Takedown defense
56%
0.39
Submission avg.
0.88

Trajectory

Akihiro GonoJon Fitch
160016501700175020192020202120222023

Win method breakdown

7 (19%)
KO/TKO
7 (22%)
9 (25%)
Submission
5 (16%)
20 (56%)
Decision
20 (63%)

Combat Edge model read

Jon Fitch84%
Akihiro Gono 16%Elo baseline: 71%

The Combat Edge model makes Jon Fitch a 84% favorite over Akihiro Gono in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (71%).

Jon Fitch holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1741 to 1585, a 156-point edge.

Akihiro Gono finishes 44% of wins inside the distance, Jon Fitch 38%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.