Al Iaquinta vs Kevin Lee
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-7-1Record20-9-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'7"Height5'9"
70"Reach77"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Serra-Longo Fight TeamTeamTristar Gym
What's at stake
Kevin Lee is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Al Iaquinta carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1677
If they lose-14→ 1645
If they win+10→ 1721
If they lose-14→ 1697
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1723 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1710 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Al IaquintaKevin Lee
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kevin Lee75%
Al Iaquinta 25%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Kevin Lee a 75% favorite over Al Iaquinta in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Kevin Lee holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1711 to 1659, a 52-point edge.
Al Iaquinta enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Al Iaquinta finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Kevin Lee 60%.
Al Iaquinta and Kevin Lee share 1 common opponent: Diego Sanchez.
Kevin Lee carries a 7-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.