Combat Edge Intelligence

Al Iaquinta vs Khabib Nurmagomedov

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

14-7-1Record29-0-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'10"
70"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Serra-Longo Fight TeamTeamFightspirit Team

What's at stake

Khabib Nurmagomedov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +5 while a loss costs more — Al Iaquinta carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Al IaquintaNow 1659
If they win+25→ 1684
If they lose-7→ 1652
Khabib NurmagomedovNow 1890
If they win+5→ 1895
If they lose-19→ 1871

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1723 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1722 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.06
Sig. strikes / min
4.10
41%
Strike accuracy
49%
4.53
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.75
61%
Strike defense
65%
0.63
Takedown avg.
5.32
19%
Takedown accuracy
48%
74%
Takedown defense
85%
0.24
Submission avg.
0.79

Trajectory

Al IaquintaKhabib Nurmagomedov
1700180019002018201920202021

Win method breakdown

7 (50%)
KO/TKO
8 (28%)
1 (7%)
Submission
11 (38%)
6 (43%)
Decision
10 (34%)

Combat Edge model read

Khabib Nurmagomedov84%
Al Iaquinta 16%Elo baseline: 79%

The Combat Edge model makes Khabib Nurmagomedov a 84% favorite over Al Iaquinta in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (79%).

Khabib Nurmagomedov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1890 to 1659, a 231-point edge.

Al Iaquinta enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Khabib Nurmagomedov enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Al Iaquinta finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Khabib Nurmagomedov 66%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.