Al Iaquinta vs Michael Chiesa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-7-1Record20-7-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'7"Height6'1"
70"Reach75"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Serra-Longo Fight Team· 1771 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamSikjitsu· 1660 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
Michael Chiesa is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Al Iaquinta carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+20→ 1680
If they lose-12→ 1648
If they win+9→ 1766
If they lose-15→ 1742
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1723 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1710 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Al IaquintaMichael Chiesa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Michael Chiesa71%
Al Iaquinta 29%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Michael Chiesa a 71% favorite over Al Iaquinta in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Michael Chiesa holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1757 to 1660, a 97-point edge.
Al Iaquinta enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Michael Chiesa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Al Iaquinta finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Michael Chiesa 65%.
Al Iaquinta and Michael Chiesa share 1 common opponent: Diego Sanchez.
Michael Chiesa carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.