Combat Edge Intelligence

Al Iaquinta vs Ryan Couture

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

14-7-1Record12-6-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'10"
70"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight156 lbs
Serra-Longo Fight TeamTeamXtreme Couture

What's at stake

Al Iaquinta is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Ryan Couture carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Al IaquintaNow 1659
If they win+15→ 1674
If they lose-17→ 1642
Ryan CoutureNow 1640
If they win+17→ 1657
If they lose-15→ 1625

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1723 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1530 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.06
Sig. strikes / min
3.12
41%
Strike accuracy
32%
4.53
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
14.02
61%
Strike defense
55%
0.63
Takedown avg.
0.63
19%
Takedown accuracy
8%
74%
Takedown defense
47%
0.24
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Al IaquintaRyan Couture
16501700175020172018201920202021

Win method breakdown

7 (50%)
KO/TKO
1 (8%)
1 (7%)
Submission
6 (50%)
6 (43%)
Decision
5 (42%)

Combat Edge model read

Al Iaquinta58%
Ryan Couture 42%Elo baseline: 53%

The Combat Edge model makes Al Iaquinta a 58% favorite over Ryan Couture in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).

Al Iaquinta holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1659 to 1640, a 19-point edge.

Al Iaquinta enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Al Iaquinta finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Ryan Couture 58%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.