Al Matavao vs Wilson Gouveia
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-7-0Record14-8-0
MiddleweightDivisionHeavyweight
5'8"Height6'2"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight219 lbs
Legacy Jiu-JitsuTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1601
If they lose-16→ 1569
If they win+16→ 1602
If they lose-16→ 1570
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1564 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1598 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Al MatavaoWilson Gouveia
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Al Matavao59%
Wilson Gouveia 41%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Al Matavao a 59% favorite over Wilson Gouveia in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Wilson Gouveia's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1585 vs 1586), separated by just 1 points.
Wilson Gouveia enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Al Matavao finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Wilson Gouveia 93%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.