Alan Baudot vs Rodrigo Nascimento
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-4-0Record12-5-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'4"
79"Reach80"
253 lbsWeight265 lbs
MMA FactoryTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Rodrigo Nascimento is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Alan Baudot carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1595
If they lose-14→ 1563
If they win+14→ 1635
If they lose-18→ 1603
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1546 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1684 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alan BaudotRodrigo Nascimento
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rodrigo Nascimento76%
Alan Baudot 24%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Rodrigo Nascimento a 76% favorite over Alan Baudot in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Rodrigo Nascimento holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1621 to 1577, a 44-point edge.
Alan Baudot enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Rodrigo Nascimento enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alan Baudot finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Rodrigo Nascimento 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.