Combat Edge Intelligence

Alan Belcher vs Donte Johnson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

19-9-0Record9-0-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height5'8"
TBDReach74"
233 lbsWeight209 lbs
Roufusport· 1700 avg Elo · 7 ratedTeamTitletown MMA

What's at stake

Donte Johnson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Alan Belcher carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Alan BelcherNow 1685
If they win+13→ 1698
If they lose-11→ 1674
Donte JohnsonNow 1707
If they win+22→ 1729
If they lose-26→ 1681

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1661 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1531 · 9 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.70
Sig. strikes / min
3.11
42%
Strike accuracy
48%
3.10
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2
60%
Strike defense
62%
0.44
Takedown avg.
2
27%
Takedown accuracy
100%
55%
Takedown defense
75%
0.87
Submission avg.
0.67

Trajectory

Alan BelcherDonte Johnson
15501600165017002011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

11 (58%)
KO/TKO
7 (78%)
5 (26%)
Submission
1 (11%)
3 (16%)
Decision
1 (11%)

Combat Edge model read

Donte Johnson85%
Alan Belcher 15%Elo baseline: 53%

The Combat Edge model makes Donte Johnson a 85% favorite over Alan Belcher in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).

Donte Johnson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1707 to 1685, a 22-point edge.

Alan Belcher enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Donte Johnson enters on a 9-fight win streak.

Alan Belcher finishes 84% of wins inside the distance, Donte Johnson 89%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.