Alan Belcher vs Ed Herman
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-9-0Record26-16-0
HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
TBDReachTBD
233 lbsWeight205 lbs
RoufusportTeamAmerican Top Team Portland
What's at stake
Alan Belcher is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Ed Herman carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1696
If they lose-13→ 1672
If they win+13→ 1655
If they lose-11→ 1631
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1661 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1640 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alan BelcherEd Herman
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alan Belcher72%
Ed Herman 28%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Alan Belcher a 72% favorite over Ed Herman in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Alan Belcher holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1685 to 1642, a 43-point edge.
Alan Belcher enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Ed Herman enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alan Belcher finishes 84% of wins inside the distance, Ed Herman 81%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.