Alan Belcher vs Jason Day
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-9-0Record19-12-0
HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'0"
TBDReachTBD
233 lbsWeight185 lbs
RoufusportTeamChampion's Creed MMA
What's at stake
Alan Belcher is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Jason Day carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1693
If they lose-16→ 1669
If they win+16→ 1588
If they lose-8→ 1564
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1661 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1566 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alan BelcherJason Day
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alan Belcher78%
Jason Day 22%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Alan Belcher a 78% favorite over Jason Day in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Alan Belcher holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1685 to 1572, a 113-point edge.
Alan Belcher enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jason Day enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Alan Belcher finishes 84% of wins inside the distance, Jason Day 89%.
Alan Belcher and Jason Day share 1 common opponent: Michael Bisping.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.