Alan Belcher vs Jason MacDonald
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-9-0Record25-16-0
HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'2"
TBDReachTBD
233 lbsWeight185 lbs
RoufusportTeamPure Fitness
What's at stake
Alan Belcher is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Jason MacDonald carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1694
If they lose-15→ 1670
If they win+15→ 1602
If they lose-9→ 1578
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1661 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1600 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alan BelcherJason MacDonald
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alan Belcher78%
Jason MacDonald 22%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Alan Belcher a 78% favorite over Jason MacDonald in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Alan Belcher holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1685 to 1587, a 98-point edge.
Alan Belcher enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jason MacDonald enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alan Belcher finishes 84% of wins inside the distance, Jason MacDonald 88%.
Alan Belcher and Jason MacDonald share 1 common opponent: Wilson Gouveia.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.