Combat Edge Intelligence

Alan Belcher vs Rousimar Palhares

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

19-9-0Record19-13-1
HeavyweightDivisionWelterweight
6'2"Height5'8"
TBDReachTBD
233 lbsWeight170 lbs
RoufusportTeamTeam Nogueira

What's at stake

Alan Belcher is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Rousimar Palhares carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Alan BelcherNow 1685
If they win+7→ 1692
If they lose-17→ 1668
Rousimar PalharesNow 1544
If they win+17→ 1561
If they lose-7→ 1537

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1661 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1543 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.70
Sig. strikes / min
1.75
42%
Strike accuracy
52%
3.10
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.04
60%
Strike defense
60%
0.44
Takedown avg.
3.93
27%
Takedown accuracy
46%
55%
Takedown defense
0%
0.87
Submission avg.
4.11

Trajectory

Alan BelcherRousimar Palhares
155016001650170020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

11 (58%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
5 (26%)
Submission
16 (84%)
3 (16%)
Decision
3 (16%)

Combat Edge model read

Alan Belcher78%
Rousimar Palhares 22%Elo baseline: 69%

The Combat Edge model makes Alan Belcher a 78% favorite over Rousimar Palhares in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (69%).

Alan Belcher holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1685 to 1544, a 141-point edge.

Alan Belcher enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Rousimar Palhares enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Alan Belcher finishes 84% of wins inside the distance, Rousimar Palhares 84%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.