Alan Belcher vs Wilson Gouveia
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-9-0Record14-8-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
TBDReachTBD
233 lbsWeight219 lbs
RoufusportTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Alan Belcher is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Wilson Gouveia carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1694
If they lose-15→ 1670
If they win+20→ 1606
If they lose-12→ 1574
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1661 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1598 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alan BelcherWilson Gouveia
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alan Belcher78%
Wilson Gouveia 22%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Alan Belcher a 78% favorite over Wilson Gouveia in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Alan Belcher holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1685 to 1586, a 99-point edge.
Alan Belcher enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Wilson Gouveia enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Alan Belcher finishes 84% of wins inside the distance, Wilson Gouveia 93%.
Alan Belcher and Wilson Gouveia share 1 common opponent: Jason MacDonald.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.