Alan Gomes de Castro vs Benjamin Molnár
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Alan Gomes de Castro64%
Benjamin Molnár 36%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Alan Gomes de Castro a 64% favorite over Benjamin Molnár in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1557 vs 1557), separated by just 0 points.
Benjamin Molnár enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Alan Gomes de Castro finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Benjamin Molnár 64%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
16-8-1Record14-12-0
FeatherweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'7"
-ReachTBD
137 lbsWeight135 lbs
Team Nogueira· 1597 avg Elo · 7 ratedTeamZalaegerszegi Birkozo
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1573
If they lose-16→ 1541
If they win+16→ 1573
If they lose-16→ 1541
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1584 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1506 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alan Gomes de CastroBenjamin Molnár