Alan Gomes de Castro vs Islam Geroev
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-7-1Record7-1-0
FeatherweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'11"
TBDReachTBD
137 lbsWeight135 lbs
Team Nogueira· 1600 avg Elo · 7 ratedTeam
What's at stake
Islam Geroev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +20 while a loss costs more — Alan Gomes de Castro carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1584
If they lose-13→ 1552
If they win+20→ 1648
If they lose-28→ 1600
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1555 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1520 · 8 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alan Gomes de CastroIslam Geroev
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Islam Geroev56%
Alan Gomes de Castro 44%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Islam Geroev a 56% favorite over Alan Gomes de Castro in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Islam Geroev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1628 to 1565, a 63-point edge.
Alan Gomes de Castro finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Islam Geroev 57%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.