Alan Gomes de Castro vs Islam Geroev
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Islam Geroev57%
Alan Gomes de Castro 43%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Islam Geroev a 57% favorite over Alan Gomes de Castro in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Islam Geroev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1648 to 1557, a 91-point edge.
Alan Gomes de Castro finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Islam Geroev 50%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
16-8-1Record8-1-0
FeatherweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'11"
-Reach-
137 lbsWeight135 lbs
Team Nogueira· 1597 avg Elo · 7 ratedTeam
What's at stake
Islam Geroev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +18 while a loss costs more — Alan Gomes de Castro carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+20→ 1577
If they lose-12→ 1545
If they win+18→ 1666
If they lose-30→ 1618
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1584 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1526 · 9 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alan Gomes de CastroIslam Geroev