Alan Jouban vs Gunnar Nelson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-7-0Record19-6-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'11"
73.50Reach72"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Black HouseTeamMjolnir
What's at stake
Gunnar Nelson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Alan Jouban carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1688
If they lose-14→ 1656
If they win+14→ 1723
If they lose-18→ 1691
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1679 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1716 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alan JoubanGunnar Nelson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Gunnar Nelson67%
Alan Jouban 33%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Gunnar Nelson a 67% favorite over Alan Jouban in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Gunnar Nelson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1709 to 1670, a 39-point edge.
Alan Jouban finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Gunnar Nelson 89%.
Alan Jouban and Gunnar Nelson share 1 common opponent: Albert Tumenov.
Alan Jouban carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.