Combat Edge Intelligence

Alan Jouban vs Matt Dwyer

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Alan Jouban
us

Alan Jouban

“Brahma”

17-7-0WelterweightUFC

1670Good

Tale of the tape

17-7-0Record11-9-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'4"
73.50Reach44,0"
170 lbsWeight183 lbs
Black HouseTeamToshido Mixed Martial Arts

What's at stake

Alan Jouban is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Matt Dwyer carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Alan JoubanNow 1670
If they win+11→ 1681
If they lose-21→ 1649
Matt DwyerNow 1563
If they win+21→ 1584
If they lose-11→ 1552

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1679 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1598 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.67
Sig. strikes / min
2.57
50%
Strike accuracy
34%
3.77
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.24
60%
Strike defense
55%
0.51
Takedown avg.
0.44
44%
Takedown accuracy
10%
59%
Takedown defense
60%
0.26
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Alan JoubanMatt Dwyer
1550160016502019202020212022

Win method breakdown

11 (65%)
KO/TKO
9 (82%)
0 (0%)
Submission
0 (0%)
6 (35%)
Decision
2 (18%)

Combat Edge model read

Alan Jouban71%
Matt Dwyer 29%Elo baseline: 65%

The Combat Edge model makes Alan Jouban a 71% favorite over Matt Dwyer in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).

Alan Jouban holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1670 to 1563, a 107-point edge.

Matt Dwyer enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Alan Jouban finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Matt Dwyer 82%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.