Alan Jouban vs Seth Baczynski
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-7-0Record21-16-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'3"
73.50ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight185 lbs
What's at stake
Alan Jouban is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Seth Baczynski carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1681
If they lose-21→ 1649
If they win+16→ 1570
If they lose-8→ 1546
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1680 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1555 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alan JoubanSeth Baczynski
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alan Jouban65%
Seth Baczynski 35%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Alan Jouban a 65% favorite over Seth Baczynski in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Alan Jouban holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1670 to 1554, a 116-point edge.
Seth Baczynski enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Alan Jouban finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Seth Baczynski 90%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.