Alan Jouban vs Warlley Alves
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-7-0Record14-8-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height5'11"
73.50Reach72,0"
170 lbsWeight186 lbs
Black HouseTeamRizzo RVT
What's at stake
Alan Jouban is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Warlley Alves carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1684
If they lose-18→ 1652
If they win+18→ 1643
If they lose-14→ 1611
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1679 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1649 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alan JoubanWarlley Alves
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alan Jouban70%
Warlley Alves 30%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Alan Jouban a 70% favorite over Warlley Alves in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Alan Jouban holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1670 to 1625, a 45-point edge.
Warlley Alves enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Alan Jouban finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Warlley Alves 71%.
Alan Jouban carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.