Combat Edge Intelligence

Alan Patrick vs Damien Brown

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

15-4-0Record19-13-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'10"
74"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamBase Training Centre

What's at stake

Alan Patrick is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Damien Brown carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Alan PatrickNow 1619
If they win+15→ 1634
If they lose-17→ 1602
Damien BrownNow 1588
If they win+13→ 1601
If they lose-11→ 1577

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1651 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1613 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.82
Sig. strikes / min
3.66
41%
Strike accuracy
39%
2.95
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.86
43%
Strike defense
50%
3.01
Takedown avg.
0.68
33%
Takedown accuracy
27%
44%
Takedown defense
54%
0.26
Submission avg.
0.68

Trajectory

Alan PatrickDamien Brown
155016001650201720182019202020212022

Win method breakdown

4 (27%)
KO/TKO
3 (16%)
2 (13%)
Submission
9 (47%)
9 (60%)
Decision
7 (37%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Alan Patrick and Damien Brown within a point of even.

Alan Patrick holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1619 to 1588, a 31-point edge.

Alan Patrick enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Alan Patrick finishes 40% of wins inside the distance, Damien Brown 63%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.