Combat Edge Intelligence

Alan Patrick vs Felipe Froes

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Felipe Froes
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Felipe Froes

“Saiyajin”

27-12-1WelterweightACA

1620Solid

Tale of the tape

15-4-0Record27-12-1
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'9"
74"Reach-
155 lbsWeight158 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamNova Uniao

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alan PatrickNow 1619
If they win+16→ 1635
If they lose-16→ 1603
Felipe FroesNow 1620
If they win+12→ 1632
If they lose-12→ 1608

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1651 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1579 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.82
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
41%
Strike accuracy
TBD
2.95
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
43%
Strike defense
TBD
3.01
Takedown avg.
TBD
33%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
44%
Takedown defense
TBD
0.26
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Alan PatrickFelipe Froes
16001650202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (27%)
KO/TKO
12 (44%)
2 (13%)
Submission
2 (7%)
9 (60%)
Decision
13 (48%)

Combat Edge model read

Felipe Froes78%
Alan Patrick 22%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Felipe Froes a 78% favorite over Alan Patrick in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1619 vs 1620), separated by just 1 points.

Alan Patrick enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Alan Patrick finishes 40% of wins inside the distance, Felipe Froes 52%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.