Combat Edge Intelligence

Alan Patrick vs Joe Giannetti

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-4-0Record16-5-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height6'0"
74"Reach42,0"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamSouth Shore Sportfighting

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alan PatrickNow 1619
If they win+16→ 1635
If they lose-16→ 1603
Joe GiannettiNow 1619
If they win+16→ 1635
If they lose-16→ 1603

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1651 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1511 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.82
Sig. strikes / min
1.93
41%
Strike accuracy
39%
2.95
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.80
43%
Strike defense
41%
3.01
Takedown avg.
1
33%
Takedown accuracy
17%
44%
Takedown defense
0%
0.26
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Alan PatrickJoe Giannetti
1600165020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

4 (27%)
KO/TKO
6 (38%)
2 (13%)
Submission
8 (50%)
9 (60%)
Decision
2 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Joe Giannetti63%
Alan Patrick 37%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Joe Giannetti a 63% favorite over Alan Patrick in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Alan Patrick's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1619 vs 1619), separated by just 0 points.

Alan Patrick enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Alan Patrick finishes 40% of wins inside the distance, Joe Giannetti 88%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.